What Really Influences You?

The “Hypodermic Needle” and “Two-step Flow”

World War I (1914-1918) was the first time modern media  (including newspapers, magazines, film, still photography, records and even, to a limited degree, radio) were used in a systematic way to influence public opinion.  Leaders on all sides assumed that these media were so powerful that, used properly, they could shape public opinion on a wide scale, making even those who were opposed to the war into supporters and convincing their respective publics of the rightness of their cause.  Thus began the heyday of propaganda, and the prevailing media effects theory of the 1920s through the 1950s:  the “hypodermic needle” or “direct effects” theory.

There’s nothing complicated about this theory; it simply assumes that controlled and consistent media messages can “program” audiences into certain beliefs and behaviors.  Harold Lasswell defined it in 1927 as “the control of opinion by significant symbols, … by stories, rumors, reports, pictures and other forms of social communication.”  It especially relies upon visual imagery, because images bypass the rational, logical mind and go directly to the emotions, and it’s no accident that this theory became prevalent as media became more visually-oriented.

And you know what?  It worked. 

Sort of.

Under very specific conditions.

Propaganda proved to be quite effective, at least on the surface, in such places as Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union (although it’s hard to tell whether the mass of people really believed in the approved messages or were too afraid to disagree.)  In both places, all media were completely controlled by the State and citizens had no access to any outside or conflicting information.  Central propaganda ministries made sure that the messages were consistent across all available channels.  In Germany, the government even made a radio set available for a very small cost—a great offer for people suffering through a horrible economic depression.  The only catch was that the radio came pre-tuned to a single channel—and could not receive anything else.

   It seemed to be pretty clear that propaganda engineered public opinion  and belief systems pretty effectively in these places, and the model that the Nazis and the Soviets used is still found in some parts of the world (most notably, North Korea).

We used propaganda, too, developing everything from radio programs to comic books to a vast array of movies—even Disney cartoons.  It’s often overlooked today that in the United States, as World War II approached, there was a huge populace opposed to getting involved in the war, and the government was determined to change their minds.  Great sums of money were spent to inject media messages into such citizens and gain their support.

And you know what?

It turns out that the propaganda didn’t work.  Those who already supported the war tended to reinforce their support.  But those who started out opposed remained largely unconvinced, at least until the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Why?

For a democracy, the hypodermic needle theory is simply too simplistic (although many people still instinctively believe in it—just listen to some activists worry about the power of video games to turn children into killers.)  People in this country had access to other opinions and sources of information other than the government’s.  And they had, as it happens, less faith in the media than had been supposed.

Thus, a new model started developing in the 1940s that has become dominant:  the two-step flow theory (now refined into a more sophisticated multi-step flow model.)  I won’t take up much space to describe it; you can read a pretty good summary of it here. 

Basically, though,  flow models recognize that mass media are certainly one influence on the way we think, dress, talk, and behave.  But they’re not the only one, or even the most  powerful.  What are?

 

Other people—people we admire, respect, and want to be like.  Such people are called “Opinion Leaders.”  They may be parents, religious leaders, politicians (well, at least they used to be), sports star and other celebrities, even friends.  Their opinions count; the rest of us tend to emulate them.  In an influential recent book, The Tipping Point, writer Malcolm Gladwell distinguished two “stages” of such opinion leaders:  “mavens”, or people who collect vast amounts of information, and “connectors”,  people who somehow know so many others that they can spread ideas like a virus.

The multi-step flow model has become the basis of most modern persuasion industries, from advertising to politics.  If you can identify the 20% or so who are such people and persuade them to wear your fashion or promote your product, they will have an enormous influence upon the rest of us.

Who can you identify as “opinion leaders” who might be playing such a role in your life?